The Brexit Election: Not what government, but what Brexit

This election is not about changing government. There is no realistic prospect of that. Mrs May will still be Prime Minister on 9th June (even the question of Jeremy Corbyn remaining Leader of the Opposition seems likely to be answered in the affirmative). Given the near inevitability of Conservative victory in the current political climate, the question put to the people is not what government, but what Brexit? This election will determine the shape of Britain's exit from the European Union and what the post-Brexit nation will look like. Britain's future prosperity and position in the world depends on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, there is no more important question in British politics today, and it must be answered rightly,

In a future filled with uncertainty there is at least one truth: Labour is heading for defeat. Corbyn's leadership is not the sole source of Labour's woes, whoever the leader the electoral mountain the party needs to climb would likely be insurmountable. The polls may be dire, but even if they were good, a Labour victory would be hard to clinch. They may gain seats, they may lose seats, but the door of Number 10 will remain firmly closed. This is simply to appreciate the starkness of Labour's situation. For a fragile majority of one Labour needs a level of national swing only ever achieved under Blair in 1997, some may have hope that can be repeated twenty-years on, I do not. But in reality the climb is even harder, for even on the eve of 1997 Labour still held a rock-solid base of untouchable Scottish strongholds which no longer exist today. To retake the majority of Scottish seats, and to have any hope of a UK majority, Corbyn would need a mirror-image of the seismic swing away from Labour to the SNP which took place in Scotland at the last election. That does not seem set to happen. Rather, from what SNP losses there are, it is the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, not Labour, who seem poised to reap the reward.

But regardless of who wins (and Mrs May will win) both Labour and the Conservatives have unequivocally accepted the referendum result and are now both committed to Britain exiting the European Union. There is no possibility of that being reversed. No matter how reluctantly many in Labour embrace this new reality, both parties are now parties of Leave. The Brexit dimension of this election, its dominating dimension, is not whether or not Brexit will happen, that was answered by the referendum, but rather the question the ballot box will determine is what kind of Brexit there will be.

It is the shape of Parliament that will determine the shape of Brexit. Every MP elected will tilt the balance either away or towards the vision of Brexit they personally hold. The parties may be united in saying Britain will leave the EU, but they are bitterly divided, against each other and within themselves, on what form that departure should take and what post-Brexit Britain should look like. A Conservative parliamentary majority does not necessarily mean a parliamentary majority for the increasingly Hard-Brexit agenda being pursued by the current Conservative government. The government's Brexit mandate will come from whatever Brexit vision commands majority support in the new Commons, the composition of which it is for the voters to decide.

This may then lead to this election being a lot less partisan than most, as the individual position of the candidates on Brexit matters a great deal, not necessarily determined by the colour of their rosette or in line with the opinion of their party at large. Electors must therefore put pressure on those seeking election to find out exactly what their Brexit vision is. A usual Labour voter may find their Conservative candidate has views closest to their own, a previous Conservative supporter might prefer the position of the Liberal Democrats. It is the Brexit question which this election will give an answer to and voters must bear that in mind and vote, to a large extent, on this issue; it's overriding importance being hard to overestimate. It should be remembered that over half of British trade is with the EU. Britain's future prosperity will to a large extent be conditioned by the Brexit deal achieved. It is essential that it be the best possible, not 'Brexit at any cost,' but Brexit at the least cost.

Barring a miracle, the government will still be the government on 9th June. Mrs May will still be Prime Minister. Brexit will be pursued. It is the manner of that pursuit and the destination aimed for that this election will decide. Instead of handing the government a blank cheque, the mandate on Brexit must be clear: Brexit is to be a Brexit in the national interest, guided always by an open-minded pragmatism, not driven by an uncompromising ideology. It was the referendum that decided Britain was to leave the European Union. It is this election that will decide the form of our departure. The question before us at the ballot box is what kind of Brexit there will be, and our vote must be cast accordingly.